MLB NL East Predictions
I recently predicted that the Mets would win the Eastern division and that the Braves would win the Wild Card…but could I have spoken too soon?
The NL East is basically a 3 team division this year, the Mets, Phillies, and the Braves.
The Mets lost one of their best pitchers (Tommy Glavine) but managed to replace him effeciently by acquiring Johan Santana from the Twins (mortgaging their farm system in the process) in possibly the biggest trade of the MLB offseason.
The Phil’s just upped Ryan Howard’s salary 11x. He went from roundabouts $900,000 annually to $10,000,000 per year. Quite a pay raise, but well deserved.
So herein lies the rub:
Which team has more “ifs”??
The Mets: yes, they have a good lineup, a good staff…but what about Pedro? Tommy Glavine was among the league leaders in quality starts last year in the NL…let’s just say that Santana replaces that stat…so where does that leave them? Is Pedro healthy? Can you count on him? If the pitching staff is solid is David Wright their saviour?
The Phillies: Baseball Prospectus has them listed as 1st in the NL East. Hardball Times Staff Consensus has them at #1….and Baseball America has them 1st with a loss in the World Series.
They are good, the pitching is adequate, the hitting is even better, but can they compete with the Braves and the Mets in a 162 game season? I personally doubt it.
The Braves: The Braves have arguably the best 3/4 hitters in the game today…maybe even in the history of the game when you compile the numbers.
As we stand here today, Chipper Jones is the 3rd most prolific switch hitter in the history of the game behind only Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray….and he will pass Eddie Murray pretty soon.
It’s kind of ironic that Larry Wayne Jones’ father always compared him to the “Mick“…kind of a hard set of footsteps to follow…wouldn’t you agree?
Mark Teixeira is also among the game’s elite switch hitters. His numbers speak for themselves.
Now I ask you…
Which team in the history of the game has had as good a righty/lefty combination in the 3 and 4 holes of the batting order of the 08′ Braves? You have to take into consideration the Avg, RBI, HR, and OBPS…everything…how do you pitch to them? Late in the game, 8th inning, game on the line…do you try and switch Chipper to righty? With Teixeira hitting behind him? And the freeswinging stud Francouer behind him?
…I don’t think so.
Now, the real question lies within the rotation.
With a healthy Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, and maybe even Hampton…how can the Braves go wrong?? Especially when you have a guy like Chuckie James, who used to be our 3rd starter, is now competing for our 5th spot against a guy like Jurrjens waiting in the wings??
…It’s all about the “ifs”…
…”If” the Braves stay healthy, they are as good as it gets…even with a MLB median payroll.
…Folks, if you think I am wrong…then I am all ears….have at it!!!



How about catergorizing all of these posts under Baseball Jadarm. I am trying to memorize huge chunks of it so I can talk shit with my baseball loving friends and they will think I know what I am talking about.
Also, that way when Ricky or LM or Davey or Dave or Kim or Bryan or Bill or Mike or even Smijer chime in and tells you that you don’t know what you are talking about I can add that to my storehouse of knowledge and really impress my friends!
I am trying to broaden my horizons.