Tête-à-Tête-Tête

I sometimes have a bad habit of being optimistic, and I guess this is one of those times. Tim F., the Balloon Juice lefty is not a Middle East Expert, so it must be that his analysis leaves room for optimism, and that it is apparently consistent with the facts as they have been related in the media lately, that makes me want to point to and comment on it.

Anyone sane will admit that Israel’s response to Hezbollah’s abduction of IDF soldiers has been “disproportionate”. It’s also been unfortunate, in that it has already killed and maimed hundreds of innocent people. However, there’s a fair argument that failure to disarm Hezbollah may do the same, and for generations to come. Reading between the lines of Tim’s post, an optimist may see a glimmer of hope for the goal of disarming Hezbollah and saving many more lives than Israel’s current military response is costing. And, I’m for for that. His points, and my comments:

Israel has already begun invading Lebanon. Either the domestic political pressure became unbearable, the risk of an external peace deal became too immediate or Israel has decided that Hezbollah can no longer resist effectively.

Another possibility: that the IDF initially misjudged the situation, believing they could cripple Hezbollah in Lebanon from the air, and have now corrected that view.

In case anybody was still unsure, Israel has declared that it has no interest in fighting Syria and Iran. Any widening of this conflict would inflict tremendous Israeli casualties for negligible benefit and would distract, at least in the short term, from the goal of ending the Hezbollah rocket fire. Michael Savage can go cry in his Cabernet Franc.

One of my biggest worries is about escalation to a regional war. I’ve more than once heard strong denials of any such intentions on the part of the Israelis. Let’s hope they are serious, and that Syria doesn’t decide to escalate the fighting on their own part.

I had an illuminating conversation last night about how exactly the factions can deal with this in the mid/long term. It seems to me that Israel needs another occupation like it needs a hole in the head, which leaves basically one option. If Israel demotes Hezbollah from quasi-army back to ragtag guerilla outfit and participates aggressively in the rebuilding of Lebanon and particularly a central Lebanese army, the chances are very good that Lebanon will exert its prerogatives and clamp down on the Hezbollah troublemakers by itself. For one thing the simplest definition of a government may be whoever owns the monopoly on force, and no functioning government can long tolerate an independent entity using force within its borders. Worse for Hezbollah is their sponsor (Syria) who grows increasingly unpopular among the Lebanese. In my view Israel can help guarantee the security of its own government by contributing generously to that of Lebanon.

‘Course hardline Islamic leaders and would-be terrorists will not take kindly to Israel visibly contributing to the government and defense of Lebanon. But, there is still hope, especially if the U.N. and/or the Arab League takes the political lead, for this to happen without Lebanon being labeled a servant of Zionist interests.

This part’s not so hopeful:

To add, of course Israel must take more care to avoid civilian casualties. Apartments and gas stations can be rebuilt, but you cannot reassemble children.

Twelve-year-old Nour lay heavily bandaged and fighting for her life in a hospital in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre. She is one of many children killed and injured in Israeli air strikes on this Mediterranean port in past days.

More ambulances streamed into the hospital and doctors hurried to treat the victims of the latest bombing. Whatever the Israelis’ intended target, the bomb fell on a small water canal next to the Qasmia refugee camp, home to about 500 Palestinians. Its victims were 11 children taking an afternoon swim in the canal.

People who support Israel should make an extra effort to demand that she avoid handing these PR gifts to her Hezbollah enemy. And yes, Hezbollah’s indiscriminate rocket barrages are no better.

Uh…. Tim -that’s more than a PR gift to the enemy- but I guess you know that. Just a little more emphasis on the “children cannot be reassembled” side of the story, you know?

Part of the problem right now is that the IDF is robo-calling southern Lebanese civilians and telling them to evacuate… but they have bombed the bridges and roads that leave north. Whether this reflects a lack of proper concern for civilian safety or just pure stupidity it is bad. But it’s probably too late to fix. All we can do is hope this is over quickly.

If you prefer more doom & gloom, try this opinion piece from The Baltimore Sun.